Get Ready For The Bank Of Canada To Rewrite The Script Next Wednesday

On Wednesday, December 3, the Bank of Canada will release its latest interest rate announcement. It’s been one and a half months since the central bank published its quarterly Monetary Report, so it’s tempting to assume that the message from Poloz & Co. won’t have changed too

Whoa, Canada: Q3 Economic Growth Crushes Expectations, Details Less Bright

The Canadian economy expanded by 2.8 percent in the third quarter, a much better showing than anticipated. The consensus estimate was for growth of 2.1 percent quarter-over-quarter, at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate. Household spending and residential investment (which increased at the fastest pace since Q1

The Morning Playbook: How’d the Canadian economy fare in Q3?

Top of the Morning In Business Insider, former PIMCO CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO Mohamed El-Erian discusses the wisdom of yesterday’s decision by OPEC, which sent oil prices and Canada’s benchmark equity index plummeting: OPEC has a history of opting for strategic rather than tactical decisions; and, this

The Morning Playbook: The Fate Of Canada’s Key Commodity Is Being Decided In Vienna

Top of the Morning In a special to The Globe and Mail, Carl Mortished comments on an oft-overlooked but potentially very important ripple effect from the shale revolution and drop-off in oil prices: A great pipeline of money that flowed from consumers to OPEC treasuries and back

The Morning Playbook: The Great Canadian Housing Debate Continues

Top of the Morning The Globe and Mail’s Ian McGugan calls on Ottawa to show a little more concern about soaring Canadian home prices: Canada’s red-hot housing market has passed the point where anyone should see it as an economic positive… One problem with the trend to

The Morning Playbook: Canadian Consumer Spending Poised To Rebound After Soft Summer

Top of the Morning FT Alphaville’s Matthew Klein discusses research concerning whether some people who’ve been out of work for an extended period of time shouldn’t be considered part of the available supply of unutilized labour, which economists commonly refer to as slack: One provocative theory, articulated

The Morning Playbook: World Powers And Iran Reportedly Fail To Reach Deal On Its Nuclear Program

Top of the Morning Over at The Globe and Mail, Scott Barlow highlights a long-term trend that suggests emerging markets – and in turn, the TSX – may be set to underperform U.S. equities: The 30-year pattern shows that it is extremely rare for emerging markets equities

Core Inflation Hits Highest Level Since Early 2012, Bank Of Canada Yawns

Inflation rose by much more than anticipated in October. Statistics Canada reports that the headline rate rose 2.4 percent year-over-year, four tenths of a percentage point more than expected, while the core rate came in two tenths of a percentage point above the consensus estimate at 2.3

The Morning Playbook: Loonie Jumps As China’s Central Bank Surprises With Stimulus

Top of the Morning While bearish sentiment on the high-yield (or “junk”) bond market appears to be a tad overdone in the short-term, Reuters’ Luciana Lopez and Jennifer Alban provide an excellent look at why so many big names aren’t in love with this asset class: Six

The Morning Playbook: Manufacturing Surveys Reinforce Global Economy’s Fragility

Top of the Morning Ed Clark, former President and CEO of TD Bank, delivered the keynote address at an Economic Club of Canada event on Wednesday. The philanthropist took this opportunity to urge citizens to increase their charitable giving and comment on the role governments can play

The Morning Playbook: The Death Knell Of The Commodities Supercycle Hasn’t Tolled

Top of the Morning China has been far and away the largest source of increased demand for commodities over the past decade. As its rate of expansion moderates, and the composition of growth shifts towards domestic spending rather than credit-fuelled and export-led growth, conventional wisdom holds that

The Morning Playbook: Canadian Retailers In The Spotlight (For All The Wrong Reasons)

Top of the Morning Carl Riccadonna, former Deutsche Bank economist who is now with Bloomberg, writes that the American economy’s expansion cycle isn’t set to die of old age: Assessing the “relative age” of the current cycle depends more on the critical macroeconomic fundamentals than counting the

The Morning Playbook: Canadian Pharma Giant’s Major Acquisition Attempt Derailed

Top of the Morning Investors who were short bonds at the beginning of this year in anticipation of rising yields – a widely-held view – got hammered. However, according to Bloomberg, the experts are once again confidently calling for weakness in fixed income: Given the chance to

Finding Customers In Emerging Markets Might Not Be A Big Plus For Canadian Business Investment

For years, monetary policymakers have been hoping for (and forecasting) a rebalancing of growth in Canada away from consumer spending and towards exports and business investment. While exports have shown many signs of life recently, there’s nary a green shoot to be found when it comes to

The Morning Playbook: Europe Grows, But Chinese Loan Growth Slows

Top of the Morning At Vox EU, Peter Temin and David Vines observe that the debate over the efficacy of Keynesian-style stimulus in the response to economic turmoil in Europe is  a case of plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose: Keynes faced exactly this opposition in

The Morning Playbook: Will the drop-off in oil snap the TSX’s winning streak?

Top of the Morning Michael Batnick of Ritholtz Wealth brings up five things investors should pay attention to amid all the noise. Here are two of them: 2) A single earnings report is not the be-all and end-all, however there are things you can look for that

The Morning Playbook: Just How Large Will The Election-Year Surplus Be?

Top of the Morning Over at Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, Stephen Gordon has penned a very worthwhile read. Canadians shouldn’t be worried about over-reliance on natural resource extraction, he writes, it’s the “manufacturing trap” that should be cause for concern: Protectionist policies for manufacturers and a home-grown –

The Morning Playbook: As Oil Slumps, China Shops

Top of the Morning Lest we forget – for Remembrance Day, here’s the Financial Post’s Peter Kuitenbrouwer on how Canadian poppies are manufactured: Producing 19 million of these poppies is a remarkable, enduring supply-chain success story. This year, which may turn out to be one of the biggest

The Day On Bay: TSX Weathers Plunge In Oil, Gold To Book Modest Gain

The TSX gapped higher, plunged out of the gate, then traded slightly higher in the afternoon. Canada’s benchmark index weathered a massive drop-off in the price of crude oil to close up 19 points at 14,709.80. The near contract for WTI crude made a move towards the

Canadian Construction Activity Slumps In October As Multi-Family Starts Tumble

Construction activity in Canada, which has come in well ahead of economists’ expectations thus far this year, moderated significantly in October. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate of 183,604. Economists were looking for a reading